Day Three Categorical Convective Outlook
The risk level for severe thunderstorms is notated as anywhere from "Marginal" to "Enhanced" to "High".
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Day Three Probabilistic Outlook
The risk level for severe thunderstorms is notated as anywhere from "Marginal" to "Enhanced" to "High".
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Probabilistic Convective Outlooks Explained
Forecasting rare events such as tornadoes and the occurrence of large hail and damaging wind gusts is a very difficult process and one that contains a large amount of uncertainty. In the traditional Convective Outlooks this uncertainty is conveyed via the Slight/Moderate/High Risk terminology. A more direct method of expressing the forecaster's uncertainty is to use probabilities. Probabilities directly express a level of confidence that an event will or won't occur.
