Football Handicapping Tips

Overlooked NFL Handicapping Variables

The Kicking Game:

Football is a game in which field position plays a huge role. Be careful betting on teams that have a punter with a low average or a field goal kicker that can't hit it from deep or is having problems knocking it through the uprights. Punting is an essential part of football as it's a life preserver for a team buried in their own territory, as well as the need to punt the opponent deep in their own territory. Field-goal kicking is a no-brainer. The smallish guys with the funny-looking face masks may not be our favorites to root for, but they are an integral part of the game, and they are directly responsible for field goals and extra points, which have much value when it comes time to figure out whether you covered or lost to the almighty spread.

Injuries to Offensive Lineman:

Injuries to offensive linemen are huge when capping games. These guys protect the quarterback. They provide a pocket for your QB to throw out of, and if that line is being penetrated and broken down, the QB has no time to throw, which means he's going to be rushed, sacked, or even forced into fumbling or throwing an errant pass leading to an interception. Start licking your chops if you see that a team's CENTER is out. The boring position of center is not so boring when it's out and you're on the opposing team with a bet. Not only will a center being out affect the penetration and pocket, but the timing as well. This is the guy that hikes the ball, and when his timing is off, it can really burn a team. Summarizing these thoughts, backup offensive linemen never seem to be up to par and don't offer what a starting OL offers. Take advantage of this, especially when multiple starters are out or if a team is missing their starting center.

Turnovers:

This is a weird stat. It's not easy to put your finger on a team that turns the ball over. You really have to dig for it. If you can figure it out, this will provide a nice boost to your bankroll. Determine which teams do it frequently, which players are responsible, and which teams force these turnovers. All this is very valuable, and if you get in the habit of doing it, you will gain some valuable insight that will help you win. Yes, there are actually quarterbacks and running backs out there who don't protect the ball well and have a habit of coughing it up. The only crapper about this is that these guys don't stick around long as this drives coaches nuts, and they too know that it's a problem that doesn't seem to go away, so the player gets cut, traded, or benched as turnovers are a killer. Don't find yourself on a team that has a RB, etc. that coughs it up on a regular basis. Study turnovers and reap the benefits.

Weather:

We always see guys betting on games blindly. It's super common and about the dumbest thing you can do, especially in football. I dunno about you, but I don't feel too good about betting on the over 38.5 then turning on the tube to see 4 inches of snow and hearing the announcers pipe off that the game is going to be nothing but a lot of running! OUCH. Been there, done that, and it stinks! Check the weather report before you get down on your games!

Turf/Grass:

I can't go real deep into this, as I'm not a huge believer in it, nor does it apply to most teams; however, there are some that really excel at one or the other for various reasons. A team built with a lot of team speed is going to do well on turf. The late-nineties St. Louis Rams were known as the greatest show on turf, and for a reason! They out-sped, out-juked, and outplayed opponents using their speed to their advantage. Not a huge variable when capping the NFL, but worth looking into.

Fading the Public and General Consensus:

Each week, Las Vegas oddsmakers put out a side and total for each NFL matchup. Bettors flock to the windows to make their selections, and despite what you may think or have been told, the action comes in evenly on some games and one-sided on others. The key to fading the public consensus and finding winners is to figure out which games are getting one-sided.

One-sided means all the action is coming in on one team, while the opponent is seeing very little betting action or money. A good example of a one-sided game would be 80% of bettors on the Packers while 20% are on the Bears, with a game spread of around -9.5. This raises a red flag with us as we see that the sportsbooks have either put out a bad line that is going to get them crushed or they've effectively duped the public into a sucker line, and they have full intention of wiping out the players bankrolls for that payday. What we do when we see this is keep a close eye on the point spread, looking for movement, whether it be up or down. In most cases, if the line rises, it's just public money, and the book is trying to get a few bucks back on the other side. If there's 80% on the Packers and the line moves in favor of the Bears, for example, down from -9.5 to 9 or 8.5 or better, we know that the sharps (aka: wiseguys, who are named sharps for a reason) are finding the underdog to have good value and have unloaded on the underdog. This becomes a tremendous spot to collar a barking dog (an underdog bet with a bunch of value). These bets don't win every time, but it will amaze you at how high a percentage they hit, and the ones that do lose don't lose by much. In our estimation, this is a very safe way to bet on pro football. In closing, our "fading the 80% pick" was just an example. We start watching for reverse line movement around the 60% mark. The opposite side seems to hit better the higher it goes. The 80%'ers are hard to come by but are beauties when they rear their heads.

Betting on nationally televised games:

Betting on nationally televised games is something you have to watch out for because you may be betting into inflated lines if your taking the public favorite as your bet in the game. The reason for this is that the oddsmakers and "Bookies" all know that the public loves the favored team so they may inflate the line a bit which sucks the value out of the favored team thus giving the underdog some decent value.the same can be said regarding betting "over the total points" as the books know that Joe Public loves to see lots of points scored and has a natural bias towards taking the over with hopes of seeing just that.TV games that the big networks carry are much more likely to be watched and four times more likely to be bet on than games not getting as much attention. A ton of action on these games may also move the point spread from time to time which gives the favored side even less value.Due to the fact that the NFL is the ultimate weekend warrior wagering event, many gamblers only bet on games that are televised. You can bet that if the bookies know their going to get one sided or receive a ton of action on a game that their going to get their share of value before a line is created. How many seasons and years was the underdog such a great bet in the NFL? It was huge! People started catching on though and it's not as valuable anymore, however, it's still the first side to look at before getting down on the MNF game.Another problem with betting the favorite or the over in a Sunday night or Monday night football game is that after taking a beating all weekend long, many bettors are out in full force unloading their wallets in hopes of the late game being a bailout play that brings them even or shows them a small profit. You better believe the bookies are licking their chops waiting for just that!In summary, we suggest that you always hunt for value on the dog or the under in a big nationally televised game as well as knowing what side the public is on which can be found at Wagertracker.com. Especially if that game is being played on a Sunday or Monday night and is a bailout game for those who got crushed during the weekend

NFL Key Numbers

If you're serious about winning when you bet on NFL football games, you need to be familiar with key numbers and what those numbers are. This article can and will increase your chances of beating the NFL point spread if you decide to implement this advice into your sports handicapping arsenal. Enjoy!

Key numbers are the margins most landed on relative to NFL final scores. By knowing what the key numbers are, you can avoid getting duped into betting a bad line, and if you're good at reading between the lines, you can actually read which way the oddsmakers want you to bet on the game. As most already know, "3" is the most common margin of victory in NFL football games. Many games come down to the final minutes and are won by a field goal, as are games that go into overtime.

A study was done on a 17-year period consisting of around 4000 games to see what the most common final score margins were.

• To nobody's surprise, 3 was the most common margin, at 15.1%.
• It's no surprise that 7 was the second-most common margin, but what was a surprise to us is that it comes in more than two times less than the 3, to the tune of 7.1%.
• The third most common margin was "6," which is somewhat of a surprise. A six-point margin occurred six percent of the time.
• The other two key numbers to note are 10 and 4, which came in at 5.9 and 5.8%, respectively.

Now that we've established what key numbers are and which to pay attention to, you may be getting crafty and wondering what would happen if you bought a half point on some of them. We once read a study that showed that: Buying Underdogs up from +2.5 to +3, +3 to +3.5 and +9.5 to +10 have all resulted in profits.

On the flipside, buying favs down from -2.5 to -2, -3 to -2.5, -3.5 to -3 and -10.5 down to -10 have all resulted in making for a better bottom line.

Keep in mind that this is over a long span, including all games. If you're an astute handicapper that picks and chooses his spots, a half-point buy can be a huge asset to your sports betting arsenal. As we stated earlier in the article, once you are familiar with key numbers, you can use them to your advantage in helping you pick or pass on a game because you can literally see which way the book wants the public to bet. We all know that the book wins long-term, so there's nothing wrong with being on the same side as them! This means that, as a rule of thumb (this does not apply to all spreads, just most), You should avoid laying -2.5, -6.5, -9.5, and -3.5. These numbers are inviting you to bet on spreads that appear to be allowing you to win on key numbers. The book isn't this stupid. They're offering easy cheese lines because they believe just the opposite is going to happen. Furthermore, you want to avoid wagering on lines such as +3.5, +7.5, +10.5, and +4.5 because this is the opposite of the inviting favorites. Their inviting underdogs! The book isn't going to put out an opening line and let you land on a key number so easily. Do you really think they're going to let you put the odds in your favor? No way. Steer clear of these opening lines unless you have good, solid reasons for fading them, which does happen but not often. All kidding aside, if you take heed to this article, you have just increased your NFL winning percentage by 3% or more. Believe it!