Old Time Great Handicapping Angles

Over the years, most angles quit producing because the game changed so quickly. There was a time when a horse was laid up for two weeks; it was an automatic toss. That is no longer true; almost no horses race back in 14 days. These angles have stood the test of time and still produce winners at decent odds. Happy hunting!

Step up off drop

A horse stepping up off a drop and an out-of-money finish, great for long prices!

Freshened Fillies

This angle has produced really nice winners over the years and still holds true today.

Here are the rules:
  • 1. Focus on sprints (one-turn mile races can be included).
  • 2. The freshening period should be at least four weeks; the longer, the better.
  • 3. The filly may show that she has won on a layoff before. That's nice, but others will see it, and the odds will be lower.
  • 4. She should be working well with at least one task at 4f or longer. Very slow work by fillies with fast early speed can be a contrarian indicator.
  • 5. Don't be influenced by trainer stats. A guy can be 0 for 4 with time-off horses, but they could be males.
  • 6. Restricted races (maidens, NW2 etc.) are the best.

So remember the simple mantra "Fresh Fillies/Cold Colts" don't be afraid to bet these type at boxcar prices.

Class Drop and Pop

Here's an angle that goes back years, and it still latches on to big prices today.
  • Last 3 races must be for higher claiming price or class than today.
  • Horse must have run OUT OF THE MONEY in each of last 3 races, or not better than SHOW in just one of them.
  • Horse must have WON one of its prior 3 races (before the bad form cycle) OR show a 1/3 in the money record for this year and last (from summary box).
  • Horse must have started within last 30 days.

Pop and Stop

Restricted to sprints only.
  • Horse shows “front-end” speed to the quarter pole (in it’s most recent race) then proceeds to finish more than 20 lengths back at the wire (preferably more than 30).
  • If that horse returns to race within an acceptable amount of time (e.g., no extended layoff), with a slight drop in class, and it’s capable of making the lead against today’s field, then WATCH OUT

Drop and Leading rider switch

Here's and old one that has been profitable for many years.
  • Horse is dropping in class
  • Rider change to a leading ride or a rider who has won with the horse before
  • Horse showed improved early speed last time out

Tidbit

"Never bet a 3-y-o giving actual weight to older."

Beyer-figure contender

With 3 to 6 contenders, you have an easier way to handicap the races.
  • Look at each horse's last two races and circle the highest Beyer of each. The top three Beyer's are contenders.
  • Now look at each horse's bottom 8 races and circle the highest Beyer of them. The top three are also contenders

Tidbit

"Stretch out, blinkers off."

Claimed, Layoff and Raised

Horse is claimed, laid off over a 100 days, raised in class from where it was claimed. Min. odds, 9/2. No other conditions; distance, surface, tracks, jockeys, etc. While luck always plays a part, the very first one I played was a $40 winner, and several others over the next few weeks. I lowered my plays to 7/2 min. odds. He also told me that it sometimes works better at the beginning of a new meet.

Purchase Price vs Stud Fee

A horse who sells at auction for $400,000 out of a sire who only commands a stud fee of $10,000 is worth paying attention to. This horse clearly impressed somebody enough to attract that kind of money and was not sold based on name brand value alone. Inversely, a colt out of a leading sire who stands for $250,000 (War Front, Tapit, etc) but only sells for $20,000 at auction raises questions. Clearly this horse has not developed the way the breeder has hoped to return such a small amount despite the big-name pedigree.

Tidbit

"Runner stretching out for the first time in a GrStks race."
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