51-0-2-4.
It may be a statistical oddity but it is also interesting to note that horses who enter the Derby with three consecutive starting prices that Horses who did not achieve a Beyer Speed Figure that was equal or superior to the average two turn prep winning figure compiled a record of
89-0-3-1.
Angling For A Winner:
Bet every horse that has worked two bullets since their last prep race - Make sure that one of those bullets is their final Derby workout. Horses often signal top form with some fast moves in the morning. 13 horses horses qualified and 4 of them turned out to be winners. A massive 444.61% ROI would have been yours.
Angling For A Winner:
Bet every horse who ran a 100+ Beyer as a Two Year Old - 27 qualifiers in the last 12 runnings and 5 winners including a bunch of recent ones like Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Barbaro and Street Sense. You would have made 52.96% by betting on all of them.
AHP Tidbits
Trainers are always looking for ways to improve their charges. Many horses have quirks and those quirks have to be worked out. There is one school of thought that suggests that Derby hopefuls should not get any equipment changes as 3yo's. The feeling is that horses are disadvantaged if their trainer is focusing his energies on trying to straighten them out rather than just on having them 100% fit for the big day.
The change that trainers usually make for a horse who fools around is adding blinkers, or sometimes a trainer wants to see something different from his horse so he takes away blinkers that the horse had been used to using. Since 1996 here are the numbers for blinker changes.
Added blinkers as a 3yo:
18-0-1-1
Took off blinkers as a 3yo:
10-0-0-1
Made any blinker changes as a 3yo:
28-0-1-2
AHP Tidbits
What month were most derby winners born in? I did some research on this angle a few years back and found that
8 of 20 winners were in Feb
6 of the 20 were in April
3 of the 20 were in March
2 of the 20 was a May
1 of the 20 was a January
This study was done from the 20 year period 1993-2012
5 Early Derby Factors Before the Big 6 Races
Cutting-Edge ideas often imitated but never duplicated.
Factor 1- Two Turn Experience
Horses who had not competed around two turns by the beginning of March in their 3yo season compiled a record of 55-1 since 1993Factor 2- 2yo to 3yo Improvement
Every single year we get top 2yo's who simply don't turn into top 3yo's. Derby record of those starters who achieved their highest career Beyer Figure as a 2yo and still won the derby are low .Factor 3- Born Feb/Mar/April
Most Derby winners born in these monthsFactor 4- Break Madien in or after Sept.
Winning before Sept over the years is a bad signFactor 5- Won stakes at 2
positive factor
2013 Win Only - Factor Strength Index
The Win % of eventual winners who qualified with this factor
Win % # Factor 91.30% 1 Must achieve Beyer as a 3yo that is equal to or superior to the avg route winning fig 86.96% 2 Last two Beyer figs must total avg 2 turn prep winning fig times 2 minus 6 95.83% 3 Must be either first or second at the 1/8th pole in one of their 2 final preps 96.00% 4 Must have minumum 2 two turn preps (last two) 87.50% 5 Finish position must be no worse than position at the 1/8th pole in both final preps 86.96% 6 Must have earned higher than field average BRIS Late Pace figure (LP) in last race 80.00% 7 Must have ITM finish in last prep 84.00% 8 Must have either Won or finished within 3 lengths of the winner in last prep 88.00% 9 Must be ITM in at least 2 races as a 3yo 100.00% 10 Last Beyer cannot be worse than both of their last two (3yo races only) 96.00% 11 Must be stakes winner (not graded) 95.83% 12 Must either win or finish within 3 lengths of the winner in a Graded Route as a 3yo 100.00% 13 Must have minumum of one stakes race @ 9f or more as a 3yo 100.00% 14 Must have faced field size of 10 or more (career) 100.00% 15 Highest Lifetime Beyer must be achieved in a two turn race 100.00% 16 Must have at least one Sire or Broodmare Sire AWD that is greater than 8.00
