Cutting-Edge ideas often imitated but never duplicated.
Although it hasn't been updated in years, it remains effective.
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Breeders Cup Turf Race Conditions
- The Breeders’ Cup Turf is run at 1 ½ miles on the grass course, for horses 3-years-old and older
- The race attracts the top grass talent from Europe and North America to compete.
- Given the current season in Lexington, the turf may be wet; if so, foreign horses are likely to have the strongest advantage.
Breeders Turf Tidbit
- Four year old entries appear to have a marginal edge over other age groups competing in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, with a winning rate approaching 50%.
- Conversely, 3-year-olds have proven to be the least successful competitors, with a win rate of around 40%. It is not unusual for Breeders’ Cup Turf winners to attempt to defend their title. Their success rate in doing so is poor, with only High Chapparal achieving consecutive Breeders’ Cup Turf titles.
- European-based thoroughbreds are worth serious consideration when betting on the Breeders’ Cup Turf. In recent years European thoroughbreds have achieved a 90% hit rate in the race.
Things to look for in a winner
- Sharp race or any finish in the Arc
- Win at 1 1/2 mile distance
- Peak effort in last + competitive in G1 races
Eliminate
- Less than 3 races in campaign
- 50+ day layoff
- 6 year-old and up
- No preps at 1 1/4 or 1 1/2 distance
Tidbits from Kennedy's Corridor
- Age (Win-Place-Runners)
- 3yo: 3-4-15
- 4yo: 4-10-43
- 5yo: 3-2-24
- 6yo+: 0-2-16
- 10 of 10 winners were aged 3 to 5
Price from Kennedy's Corridor
- 8 of 10 winners were sent off 8/1 or shorter
- The 2 shock winners in past decade (33/1 + 25/1) were both trained in USA.
- Favourites (1-4-10) have won just 1 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 8.09.
Summary
- Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Sired by a son of Sadlers Wells (ideally Galileo) or out of a Sadlers Wells mare
- Aged 3 to 5 (European-trained 3yos do well)
- Finished in the first 4 in grade/group 1 last time (posting RPR of 121+)
- Posted an RPR of 117+ in one or both of last 2 starts
- Had last run in 20 to 50 days ago
- Run 3 to 6 times this year
- Won over 1M 2F+ (ideally won over 1M 4F)
- Won a grade/group 1
- Finished in the first 5 in the Arc
- Finished in first 3 in St Leger, King George, King Edward VII and/or Prix Foy
- Finished in first 2 in Joe Hirsch Turf Classic and/or Sword Dancer Invitational
- Trained by Aidan O’Brien, Michael Stoute or Claude McGaughey
