Automatic Elemanation Factors- Handicapping 20 horses in the Derby is near impossible this system helps eliminate pretenders and focuses on the past winning factors to cut the field down to 6-8 horses. Just click on the factor for a detailed expanation with results going back to 1992.
This study does not necessarily disqualify an entry, as it demonstrates an impressive win ratio of 88.89 percent.
| Big 6 Prep Race |
Excluded from study |
Races not in Big 6 |
| Arkansas Derby |
All Years included |
Flamingo |
| Blue Grass |
2007-2014 not included on synthtic |
JRSteaks |
| Florida Derby |
All Years included |
Jim Beam |
| Louisiana Derby |
1992-2009 not included distance 1 1/16 |
Illinois Derby |
| Santa Anita Derby |
2008-2010 not included on synthtic |
Sunland Derby |
| Wood Memorial |
All Years included |
Spiral Stakes |
32 years 4 races won which had the slowest half of Derby prep races
| Year |
Arkansas |
Blue Grass |
Florida |
Louisiana |
Santa Anita |
Wood |
Winning Race |
| 1992 |
47.60 |
47.30 |
46.00 |
x |
46.25 |
47.15 |
Arkansas Derby |
| 1993 |
45.40 |
48.10 |
47.10 |
x |
46.40 |
46.40 |
Blue Grass |
| 1994 |
46.20 |
47.40 |
46.00 |
x |
45.20 |
47.20 |
Wood Memorial |
| 1995 |
46.10 |
49.00 |
47.10 |
x |
46.20 |
48.00 |
Florida Derby |
| 1996 |
45.00 |
46.20 |
46.20 |
x |
46.10 |
47.10 |
Arkansas Derby |
| 1997 |
46.10 |
48.00 |
47.30 |
x |
45.00 |
47.20 |
Santa Anita Derby |
| 1998 |
46.00 |
47.00 |
46.00 |
x |
46.00 |
46.40 |
Santa Anita Derby |
| 1999 |
46.00 |
47.00 |
48.10 |
x |
47.10 |
46.40 |
Santa Anita Derby |
| 2000 |
46.40 |
46.00 |
47.00 |
x |
47.10 |
46.40 |
Wood Memorial |
| 2001 |
45.40 |
46.20 |
46.40 |
x |
46.20 |
46.00 |
Wood Memorial |
| 2002 |
47.30 |
47.00 |
45.10 |
x |
46.40 |
46.40 |
Illinois Derby |
| 2003 |
45.20 |
47.00 |
46.10 |
x |
45.40 |
47.10 |
Wood Memorial |
| 2004 |
46.40 |
46.30 |
47.00 |
x |
46.40 |
47.00 |
Arkansas Derby |
| 2005 |
47.40 |
46.30 |
45.40 |
x |
47.10 |
46.00 |
Santa Anita Derby |
| 2006 |
46.20 |
45.40 |
47.10 |
x |
47.20 |
46.10 |
Florida Derby |
| 2007 |
47.40 |
x |
46.30 |
x |
46.40 |
47.10 |
Blue Grass |
| 2008 |
46.30 |
x |
45.40 |
x |
x |
46.00 |
Florida Derby |
| 2009 |
46.00 |
x |
46.40 |
x |
x |
48.00 |
Sunland Derby |
| 2010 |
46.10 |
x |
46.20 |
47.40 |
x |
49.10 |
Arkansas Derby |
| 2011 |
46.20 |
x |
46.10 |
47.20 |
47.10 |
47.40 |
Spiral Stakes |
| 2012 |
46.20 |
x |
47.30 |
47.10 |
47.00 |
47.20 |
Santa Anita Derby |
| 2013 |
47.30 |
x |
48.20 |
46.10 |
46.20 |
49.30 |
Florida Derby |
| 2014 |
47.30 |
x |
48.00 |
47.40 |
47.00 |
47.20 |
Santa Anita Derby |
| 2015 |
45.40 |
48.00 |
48.10 |
48.20 |
46.10 |
49.00 |
Arkansas Derby |
| 2016 |
46.10 |
46.30 |
47.00 |
48.10 |
45.10 |
46.40 |
Florida Derby |
| 2017 |
46.40 |
48.10 |
47.00 |
47.00 |
46.20 |
47.10 |
Florida Derby |
| 2018 |
48.30 |
47.20 |
46.10 |
46.30 |
47.40 |
46.30 |
Santa Anita Derby |
| 2019 |
47.50 |
47.11 |
48.98 |
47.68 |
47.84 |
46.81 |
Florida Derby |
| 2021 |
46.51 |
48.21 |
47.73 |
47.04 |
46.11 |
50.18 |
Santa Anita Derby |
| 2022 |
46.54 |
48.39 |
47.24 |
47.35 |
46.66 |
47.75 |
JRSteaks |
| 2023 |
47.26 |
48.04 |
46.71 |
49.60 |
46.30 |
49.00 |
Florida Derby |
| 2024 |
46.46 |
46.48 |
47.50 |
48.43 |
46.30 |
47.49 |
Arkansas Derby |
| 2025 |
45.21 |
46.95 |
47.22 |
46.84 |
47.14 |
47.44 |
|
Louisiana derby 2020 to present is at a 1 3/16th
